Our College Football Playoff Predictions Sure Look Familiar

11MichiganBig Ten4-1173413Ohio State72 17TexasBig 124-118026Oklahoma51 10LSUSEC5-0194510Alabama112 13WisconsinBig Ten3-1181711Penn State61 TeamConf.RecordEloMake PlayoffWin Title 2Ohio StateBig Ten5-0198613Michigan5417 19Michigan St.Big Ten3-117597Penn State31 8Penn StateBig Ten4-1183310Michigan102 7WashingtonPac-124-118197Oregon184 1AlabamaSEC5-0205610LSU60%25 14KentuckySEC5-0187510Georgia61 *A team’s most dangerous opponent is the team on its remaining schedule with the highest probability of beating it, according to the FiveThirtyEight model. 9West VirginiaBig 124-0180213Oklahoma132 3GeorgiaSEC5-020097LSU4013 5OklahomaBig 125-0191513West Virginia317 12MiamiACC4-1175212Virginia Tech81 18N.C. StateACC4-017938Clemson51 6Notre DameInd.5-019426Virginia Tech336 15StanfordPac-124-1179110Washington61 Five weeks into the 2018 season, the College Football Playoff’s crystal ball is slowly coming into focus. Some would-be contenders — like Wisconsin and USC — have largely played themselves out of the playoff with quick losses. Others — such as LSU and Notre Dame — have bolstered their resumes with early wins. But there’s still plenty of football left to be played, plenty of time to see whether we’ll end up with more of the same or something new by season’s end.To help make sense of it all, FiveThirtyEight is relaunching its College Football Playoff prediction model this week. You can read about how it works in detail here, but the basic premise is that we simulate both the results of future games (using a mix of ESPN’s Football Power Index and the committee rankings) and the behavior of the playoff committee to arrive at each team’s chances of making college football’s version of the Final Four. And according to our model, four very familiar teams — Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson — are the early leaders in the national title race, with Oklahoma and Notre Dame lurking not too far behind. 4ClemsonACC5-0191811Boston College4711 21FloridaSEC4-117489Georgia31 Surveying the 2018 College Football Playoff raceChance of making the College Football Playoff and winning the national championship for teams with at least a 1 percent title probability 20Oklahoma St.Big 124-1170511Oklahoma51 16AuburnSEC4-1182713Alabama31 Danger week*Chance to… For five of those teams, the path ahead is relatively straightforward: Win, and you’re probably in. Our model says Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma (sorry, Notre Dame) all have a greater than 99 percent chance of making the playoff if they win their remaining games. That will be easier for some than others — the Tide and Buckeyes have about a 1-in-3 chance, the Tigers’ odds are more like 1 in 4,1If not lower, given their ongoing QB drama. and the Bulldogs2Who would theoretically face Alabama in an SEC title-game matchup. and Sooners are around 1 in 10 — but each does at least control its own destiny.The same goes for three other squads, who also have a greater than 99 percent chance of making the playoff if they win out: West Virginia, LSU and Kentucky. But before fans in Morgantown, Baton Rouge and Lexington get too excited, the odds of them doing that are pretty low. FPI is skeptical that the Wildcats are very good; LSU still has to face Florida, Georgia and Alabama over a brutal monthlong stretch starting this weekend; and the remaining Mountaineer slate is no walk in the park either. It’s possible that at least one will finish with a single loss or fewer (the traditional playoff recipe for major-conference schools), but the path will be difficult.Among the teams that need a little help, Notre Dame easily has the best playoff outlook. The Fighting Irish’s most difficult remaining opponent might come this very week — a Virginia Tech team that also lost to Old Dominion two weeks ago — so red-hot QB Ian Book could be in a good position to lead Notre Dame to its first playoff berth. The Irish may not quite be playoff locks if they win out; our model says they’re at 87 percent if they run the table, meaning they’d also need one of the big-name teams to slip up along the way.3According to our model, the four teams whose playoff candidacies are least compatible with Notre Dame’s are Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Washington. But the last time a Notre Dame team unexpectedly rattled off an undefeated regular season, it went to the Bowl Championship Series title game, and it’s hard to believe it wouldn’t get the same treatment from the committee this season.Poor Central Florida probably won’t get the same benefit of the doubt, though. Despite opening the season 4-0 to extend the program’s winning streak to 17 consecutive games, the Knights have just a 2 percent chance to make the playoff in our model — and they’re only an 11 percent shot even if they manage to go undefeated for a second straight season. Between bad luck (a potentially resume-boosting Power Five road game against North Carolina was canceled because of Hurricane Florence) and the committee’s apparent unwillingness to even consider undefeated non-power conference teams over major-conference schools with multiple losses, UCF could very well find itself settling for a self-declared national title yet again by season’s end.The rest of the potential contenders have losses on their resumes, and that means serious question marks for their playoff chances. Washington’s opening-week loss to Auburn, for instance, instantly put the Huskies behind the eight ball, though they still have time to play their way back into the playoff picture if they keep winning (and, say, Notre Dame loses). Penn State still has a 10 percent shot at the playoff, despite last Saturday’s crushing late-game defeat against Ohio State, but they — along with fellow Big Ten hopefuls Michigan and Wisconsin — have plenty of work cut out for them. At least the Wolverines and (maybe) the Badgers4If they make the Big Ten title game and are matched against Ohio State. still have their chances to knock off the Buckeyes. In that regard, Penn State already blew its shot at a big, playoff-worthy statement win. Miami, meanwhile, may have short-circuited its chances early on with a 33-17 loss to LSU in the first week; the Hurricanes’ playoff hopes now rest on running the table and potentially beating Clemson in an ACC title-game rematch. Although these teams can still make the playoff, their margins for error are razor-thin.But let’s be honest: The playoff chase still mainly revolves around the preseason favorites. There’s a 65 percent chance that the national champion is one of Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia, which leaves just 35 percent for everybody else in the entire country. Although not even this year’s ridiculously dominant Crimson Tide team is necessarily guaranteed to make its fifth straight College Football Playoff appearance, it would be a surprise if Bama and its top rivals didn’t find their way into the playoff by season’s end. In today’s college football reality more than ever, the powerhouse programs are seated at the dinner table, and everyone else is left to fight over the scraps. read more

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BroncosTitans Is The Biggest Game Of Week 14

Indianapolis3941347– CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS 1. Denver (8-4) vs. Tennessee (6-6) — 119 total ‘swing’ points Green Bay2220255– Only teams with a playoff swing of at least 2 percentage points based on the game outcome shown Philadelphia has blown a promising season and now has just a 2 percent chance of making the playoffs. Washington is in danger of similar collapse, narrowly falling the last two weeks in winnable games against the Cowboys and Cardinals. They’d be out of the playoffs if the season ended today, and this week Philadelphia has the opportunity to play spoiler and knock another 18 percentage points or so off their rival’s chances. 3. New Orleans (5-7) vs. Tampa Bay (7-5) — 95 total ‘swing’ points Minnesota2825306– Tampa Bay is playing meaningful December football! The Buccaneers haven’t had a winning season since 2010, and they’ve come in last in the NFC South for five straight years. But a four-game win streak with upsets against the Chiefs and Seahawks has sent their Elo rating skyrocketing, and they’re now contenders for both the division title (25 percent chance of winning) and an NFC wild card (30 percent chance). AFFECTED TEAMCURRENTIF DEN WINSIF TEN WINSSWING Only teams with a playoff swing of at least 2 percentage points based on the game outcome shown Buffalo1061710– Philadelphia2<144– Washington39%61%21%40– AFFECTED TEAMCURRENTIF HOU WINSIF IND WINSSWING Arizona8792– Only teams with a playoff swing of at least 2 percentage points based on the game outcome shown Tampa Bay55%24%70%46– Atlanta8688853– Miami15122412– The NFL has its first playoff team! While the 11-1 Cowboys don’t quite have a lock on the NFC East title, they will at least make it as a wild card. They’ll now be playing for a bye and home-field advantage while the rest of the league fights for the remaining playoff spots.For the last couple weeks, we’ve been using the model behind our 2016 NFL predictions to calculate how much each team’s playoff chances “swing” depending on the outcome of each game. For example, we currently give the Pittsburgh Steelers a 67 percent chance of making the playoffs. If they beat Buffalo this week, we project those chances will increase to 84 percent (independent of other games). If they lose, their chances drop to 53 percent.1Our NFL predictions are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season and are updated after every game ends. In the simulations in which Pittsburgh beats Buffalo, they make the playoffs 84 percent of the time. In simulations where they lose, they make the playoffs 53 percent of the time. But it’s unlikely that Pittsburgh’s playoff probabilities will be exactly 84 percent or exactly 53 percent at the end of Week 14, because the team’s chances depend on the outcome of several games (most notably Baltimore’s), not just their own. That’s a 31 percentage point swing! By doing this same math for every matchup and factoring in how each team’s resulting record will affect others’ playoff odds, we can find out which games are the most impactful.Here are the top five for Week 14: CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS AFFECTED TEAMCURRENTIF NO WINSIF TB WINSSWING Baltimore39%66%32%35– Denver70%82%43%39– Indianapolis3945955– Minnesota2833258– 2. Houston (6-6) vs. Indianapolis (6-6) — 117 total ‘swing’ points CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS As straightforward as it gets. Whichever team wins takes control of the AFC South and gets a big playoff boost. The Titans have an outside chance at the division but don’t really care who wins here. Detroit9091893– Tampa Bay5551587– N.Y. Giants6562697– The Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos all won last week, and we now think it’s pretty likely that the West will take both AFC wild card slots. Tennessee has had a commendable bounceback season, but they’re in a tough playoff situation. The AFC West’s success means that even if the Titans run the table to end the season at 10-6, that might not be enough to make it as a wild card, and their 0-3 record against the Texans and Colts makes it unlikely that they’d win a division tiebreaker. We give them just an 11 percent chance of making the playoffs, much lower than the chances of Green Bay, Minnesota, Indianapolis and Houston, who all share the same 6-6 record. Denver7065716– AFFECTED TEAMCURRENTIF WSH WINSIF PHI WINSSWING 4. Washington (6-5-1) vs. Philadelphia (5-7) — 81 total ‘swing’ points Houston52554312– Houston52%87%32%55– Washington3943376– Pittsburgh67497223– Baltimore3937436– Only teams with a playoff swing of at least 2 percentage points based on the game outcome shown Detroit9088913– Pittsburgh6766693– New Orleans512112– Green Bay2225213– 5. Baltimore (7-5) vs. New England (10-2) — 77 total ‘swing’ points CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS AFFECTED TEAMCURRENTIF BAL WINSIF NE WINSSWING N.Y. Giants6571638– Miami1517152– One of the NFL’s best rivalries is heating up again! The Ravens and Steelers both won last week to improve to 7-5. With the AFC West bogarting the wild cards, it’s looking like only one of the two will make the playoffs as AFC North champ. So why do we give the Ravens, who would make the playoffs if the season ended today, just a 39 percent chance of advancing? For one, we have them as nine-point underdogs in Foxborough this week. For another the Steelers still have a game to play against the lowly Browns, plus an opportunity to tie up the season series at home against the Ravens in Week 16.Check out our latest NFL predictions. Only teams with a playoff swing of at least 2 percentage points based on the game outcome shown Tennessee1142825– CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS Atlanta8684874– read more

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Key to all your heat woes

first_imgThe condition requires immediate medical attention and can prove to be fatal, if left untreated. According to Dr Deepak Arora, physician, “The symptoms of heat stroke include dizziness, throbbing headache, nausea, dry skin, rapid heartbeat and hyperthermia.” He adds: “If you see any of these symptoms in a person, take him to a cool place and sponge him with cold water. In case of hyperthermia, hospitalisation is required.”  The best way to avoid chances of heatstroke is to not venture out in the sun during peak hours. But in case your work does not allow you to stay indoors, here are a few tips to help you beat the heat.  Also Read – ‘Playing Jojo was emotionally exhausting’Wear Light Clothing: Wear light coloured and loose-fitted cotton clothes in summer as they help in keeping your body cool and allow perspiration to evaporate.Drink plenty of fluids: It is important to increase your fluid intake in summers to maintain the electrolyte level in the body. Drinks rich in salt like lemonade and aampanna should be consumed every four hours. Coconut water is also very helpful. It is also important to avoid alcohol and caffeine as they can lead to dehydration. Also Read – Leslie doing new comedy special with NetflixProtect yourself: Sun burns affect the body’s ability to cool down itself. Always carry an umbrella, wide brimmed hat and sun glasses to minimise contact with the sun. And never forget to apply sunscreen before stepping out of the home. Avoid exercise: Do not indulge in strenuous physical activities during day time. If it is not possible to avoid, rest frequently and drink plenty of fluids. Avoid junk food: It’s mandatory to monitor your taste buds this season as junk food, fried in oil can lead to severe stomach disorders. For people, who are already suffering from heat stroke, medical attention is a must because procrastination can be deadly. A few natural remedies can also come to aid, in cases of emergency. The person suffering from heat stroke must be taken immediately to a shady area and excessive clothing should be removed from his body. An ice bath can be ideal in this condition. Application of onion juice on the chest or sandal wood powder on the forehead can also help in lowering the body temperature. With a little care, it is possible to stay refreshed and healthy even in this blistering heat.Compiled by Prerna Ahujalast_img read more

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81 cost of MumbaiAhmedabad rail project loaned by Japan Manoj Sinha

first_imgJapan has offered a loan amounting to 81 per cent of the cost of the $15 billion Mumbai-Ahmedabad high speed rail project, Rajya Sabha was informed on Friday.“The government of Japan has given an assistance package proposal for Mumbai-Ahmedabad high speed rail project involving financial assistance to the tune of 81 per cent of the project cost as loan,” MoS  for Railways Manoj Sinha said.With trains zipping along at up to 320kph, the Mumbai-Ahmedabad railway is expected to reduce travel time between the two cities from around eight hours to roughly two. The construction is supposed to begin in 2017, with completion slated for 2023.last_img

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A toast to friends and family all around the globe

first_imgA toast to friends and family all around the globe. Happy Holiday! [Photo: Yuki Yanagimoto & text: sa] November 26, 2004Guest and alumni joined the Arcosanti crew for a cheerful Thanksgiving dinner in the Crafts III Cafe. [Photo: Yuki Yanagimoto & text: sa] All the kitchens in Arcosanti were buzzing with activity as different crews and individuals prepared an amazing selection of traditional holiday dishes from around the world … [Photo: Yuki Yanagimoto & text: sa] All the kitchens in Arcosanti were buzzing with activity as different crews and individuals prepared an amazing selection of traditional holiday dishes from around the world … [Photo: Yuki Yanagimoto & text: sa]Guest and alumni joined the Arcosanti crew for a cheerful Thanksgiving dinner in the Crafts III Cafe. [Photo: Yuki Yanagimoto & text: sa] ….. and a variety of delicious dessert. [Photo: Yuki Yanagimoto & text: sa]last_img read more

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A Rebuttal to an AdditiveManufacturing Skeptic By

first_imgA Rebuttal to an Additive-Manufacturing SkepticBy Chris Wood, Senior AnalystWhile surfing the Technology Review magazine website last week, I came across an article written by Christopher Mims titled Why 3-D Printing Will Go the Way of Virtual Reality. The gist of the article is that 3D printing is cool, but it’s not the revolution in manufacturing that many (we included) have claimed it to be. [Ed. note: In case you missed it previously, our introductory article on 3D printing from several months ago titled A Manufacturing Revolution is a good overview of the technology.]According to Mims:3D printing, like VR [virtual reality] before it, is one of those technologies that suggest a trend of long and steep adoption driven by rapid advances on the systems we have now. … But the notion that 3D printing will on any reasonable time scale become a “mature” technology that can reproduce all the goods on which we rely is to engage in a complete denial of the complexities of modern manufacturing, and, more to the point, the challenges of working with matter.While Mims’ article makes some valid points, his analogy comparing 3D printing to virtual reality [epitomized by the movie Lawnmower Man] is misplaced; and he seems unclear on what it is that 3D-printing bulls actually expect from the technology. What’s more, he fails to mention recent advancements that have vastly expanded the markets 3D printing can serve.As we’ve noted before, 3D printing is already a $1 billion+ business according to the most recent Wohlers Report. 3D-printing companies like 3D Systems (NYSE.DDD) and Stratasys (NASDAQ.SSYS) are both pulling in north of $140 million a year in revenue, and growing fast. I don’t recall any virtual reality companies generating anywhere near that level of sales. VictorMaxx Technologies – maker of the CyberMaxx Virtual Reality Headset – discontinued operations only 18 months after going public at the end of 1996, with revenues of $750,000 and a net loss of $3 million.Furthermore, advocates of 3D printing are not suggesting that these technologies will ever “reproduce all the goods on which we rely.” We are saying that this thing is going to be huge; it already is.For those not familiar with the subject, 3D printers take a three-dimensional CAD (computer-aided design) and create a physical product from the specs layer by layer, usually by extruding thermoplastic modeling material or sintering metal powders or liquid photopolymers via lasers or electron beams.This technology will not go the way of virtual reality for many reasons, including:The numerous benefits 3D printing has over traditional manufacturing processes;The breadth of market penetration the tech has already accomplished with current applications;The technological advancements that have expanded its market opportunity; andThe increased ease of use and burgeoning consumer market.Benefits of 3D PrintingThe various technologies involved in 3D printing are already changing the world through their myriad benefits over traditional manufacturing processes.Some of these benefits include:Rapid Deployment – Time to market is reduced. Since 3D printing eliminates the need for tooling, manufacturing can begin immediately after a component’s design is complete. What used to take days, weeks, or months can now be measured in minutes and hours.Low Capital Expenditure – Eliminating tooling also reduces the cost of manufacturing. Traditional dies and tools are expensive. By cutting out those expenses, 3D printing allows for a much lower initial cash outlay to ramp up manufacturing.Less Waste – While traditional “subtractive” manufacturing processes can often remove up to 90% of the raw material to arrive at a finished component, 3D printers only use the material they need to make the part.Freedom of Design – Traditional manufacturing methods are bound by rules – such as design for manufacturability (DFM) and design for assembly (DFA) – that govern the complexity and ultimately the performance of products. Since 3D printing constructs parts with an additive fabrication process, complex designs are just as fast to manufacture as simple ones. In fact, 3D printers can actually create structures that are more intricate than any other manufacturing technique and that are impossible to build any other way. You can create parts with moving components, hinges, and parts within parts. Changes cost almost nothing to make. Thus, 3D printing promotes product innovation and allows design to be highly optimized for performance.Current ApplicationsAerospace to academia and everything in between can have an application in 3D printing. It doesn’t make sense to say 3D printing will never become a “mature” technology, considering the breadth of industries it has already penetrated. 3D printing technology is used frequently in the fields of aerospace, architecture, automotive, dental and medical, education, engineering and construction, footwear, jewelry, industrial design, and the list goes on. And while rapid modeling and prototyping still makes the biggest business case for 3D printing, the machines are increasingly being used to make final products too. According to Wohlers Associates, more than 20% of the output of 3D printers is now final products rather than prototypes. The firm predicts that this figure will rise to 50% by 2020.In the meantime, in addition to the more traditional applications – like motorcycle maker Ducati, which was able to cut 20 months and more than 70% from the development time of a new racing engine thanks to prototyping with a 3D printer – we have MIT 3D printing solar cells on paper, designer Enrico Dini 3D printing whole buildings, and scientists 3D printing human veins… not to mention the first 3D-printed car that recently rolled off the press.AdvancementsWhen 3D printers first hit the scene in the early 1980s, they were rather crude by today’s standards. Recent advancements in what they can do and the materials they can do it with have guaranteed the technology’s use in a growing number of markets in the years to come.Today, we have 3D printers that can build structures nearly three meters high. On the other end of the spectrum there are machines that can 3D print microstructures with intricate designs as small as just a few micrometers in diameter. Using a technique called two-photon polymerization (2PP), Klaus Stadlmann was able to 3D print an object at 20 micrometers – approximately the size of a dust particle.Improvements in the 3D printing processes themselves are important. But it’s the new materials available that have made it possible to produce low volumes of high quality, complex models, parts, and complete end-use products. These are products that meet the rigorous requirements of the industries they serve – from skateboards and shoes all the way to spinal implants created out of medical-grade titanium, and engine parts.Private company Objet, for example, offers 3D printing solutions with a choice of over 60 materials capable of simulating properties including varying grades of rubber, clear transparency, and rigid, ABS-grade engineering plastics.Here’s a picture of a stool the company created in a single print job that is capable of supporting more than 220 pounds:Meanwhile, a company called Shapeways offers 3D-printed objects in materials such as acrylic plastic, stainless steel, sterling silver, ceramics, glass, and full color sandstone – all with a variety of finishes available.EOS is able to 3D print top-quality metal parts like a patient-specific knee implant (left) using a biocompatible cobalt-chrome alloy, and a fuel-injection nozzle (right) for gas turbine applications using cobalt chrome.3D Systems has printers that use commercially available, gas-atomized metallic powders to produce fully dense metal parts in materials including titanium, stainless steel, cobalt chrome, and tool steel.Ease of UseIn addition to becoming more advanced, 3D printers are also becoming smaller, cheaper, and much easier to use, which should help the consumer market grow beyond just the most hardcore hobbyists.Early 3D printers were highly complex, rather large, and very expensive, targeting only the largest manufacturers that could afford their several-hundred-thousand-dollar price tags. That’s not the case anymore. While very high-end printers can still cost as much as $1 million, the options available to consumers are growing by leaps and bounds.At the recent Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, we were introduced to two new 3D printers that should help bring 3D printing to the masses.3D Systems introduced its $1,299 Cube 3D printer. The name of the game with this machine and the supporting Cubify website is (according to the company), “coloring book simplicity.” The Cube requires no assembly and is ready to print out of the box. All you have to do once you get one is visit the website, download the digital file of your choice, and start printing.MakerBot Industries also debuted a personal 3D printer at CES. Called the Replicator, this machine is capable of printing in two colors, but it costs several hundred dollars more than the Cube and requires some assembly after purchase. MakerBot’s printer, however, is all open source; and the company has a site called Thingiverse, where it shares all the digital file designs (and the designs for the printer itself) for free. So you can just download whatever you like, and you can modify it and make it yours if you like.And if you’re the type who likes to create your own designs rather than just downloading the work of others, there’s free software like Google SketchUp, which allows you to create products from scratch relatively easily.Will this increased ease of use ever lead us to the utopian future where we can all instantly download and manufacture anything, anytime, anywhere? Who knows? But we do know that as the technology progresses and costs go down, 3D printers will become more attractive to consumers.ChallengesWe’re not suggesting that 3D printing will soon – or ever – replace all traditional manufacturing processes. There are many challenges that still lie ahead. Despite all the benefits of the technology, several factors capable of curbing its adoption and hindering its growth must be acknowledged.For starters, 3D printing is not presently a high-volume manufacturing process. 3D printers would be advantageous for production quantities ranging from one to at most several thousand units per year, and where quick modification and customization capability is desirable. But if the demand is for millions of identical units a year, 3D printing is not yet the right solution.What’s more, you’re probably giving up some output quality when you choose 3D printing over traditional manufacturing. Despite ongoing technological improvements in this area, 3D printing cannot yet fully compete with injection molding. 3D printers are capable of holding accuracies that are approximately +/- 0.005-inch for small to mid-sized parts, whereas injection molding is capable of holding +/- 0.001 to 0.002-inch tolerances across all features of a part.Lastly, despite the expanding number of materials that can be utilized by 3D printing technologies, the options are still much more limited than for a process like injection molding.But none of these factors is capable of sending 3D printing the way of virtual reality, in our view.ConclusionThe point is, 3D printing is simply too useful across a wide spectrum of applications to be compared to VR. It is here to stay. Going forward, the technology will displace conventional manufacturing techniques in some instances and complement them in others. Consumers will increasingly adopt it. The technology will continually be refined, while the range of usable materials will broaden. These advancements should allow us to start printing electronics in a few years… and perhaps even body parts someday down the road.This is an industry barely into its infancy. It’s a situation not unlike that with the personal computer thirty years ago, when only Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, and a few other visionaries foresaw that the PC could become an essential household appliance.Will it be the same for the 3D printer? Don’t bet against it.[Make sure your portfolio is optimally wired for profits, by choosing the right tech companies in which to invest. Get started today.]Facebook Finally Files Paperwork to Go PublicAs was expected, Facebook filed a Form S-1 yesterday, announcing its intention to offer shares of Class A common stock to the public under the symbol “FB.” The filing indicates that Facebook is seeking to raise $5 billion when it IPOs in the spring, but that number will likely increase. Also contained in the document were the detailed financial results that we’ve all been guessing at these past few years. What the numbers show us is that Facebook is a very profitable, rapidly growing business (well, duh!?!) but it might not be growing as fast as some people thought.Revenue in 2011 rang in at $3.71 billion, up 88% from the $1.97 billion the year before. Impressive. But the annual growth rate did slow from the 154% experienced in 2010. When you’re dealing with such large revenue figures you expect growth rates to decline over time (unless you’re Apple over the past several years), but you might not expect such a big reduction from a relatively young enterprise. Meanwhile, net income of $1 billion in 2011 reflects a 65% increase from the year before, but the net margin of 26.9% was down 375 basis points from 2010.With strong, growing revenues, significant profits, and 845 million monthly active users, it’s no secret that Facebook is a force to be reckoned with. When the company does go public at maybe a $75 billion valuation, it will make a lot of people very rich. Good for them; we’re happy to see the market reward individuals both for their innovations and for helping fund such endeavors.What we’re not sure of is how much love the market will give to FB in the days and weeks after the IPO, particularly after the lockup period is over. If Facebook is able to grow revenue at its current rate of 88% for, say, the next three years and can maintain its net margin of 27% (which would result in earnings of about $3.5 billion and a P/E ratio of 21 – not too much above Google’s earnings multiple of 17), then a $75 billion valuation does not look too rich. But if there’s any hiccup in revenue growth, watch out.Bits & BytesGraphene Competitor Used to Make Circuits (Technology Review)Graphene – the one-atom-thick, honeycomb-lattice allotrope of carbon – is a material with virtually limitless potential (which helps explain why its discoverers received the 2010 Nobel Prize in physics). It’s the best conductor of electricity at room temperature that we know of, and it’s also the strongest material ever tested. Because of its unique properties, scientists have believed for years that graphene might be capable of solving silicon’s shortcomings in electronics. Prototype transistors composed of graphene operate at much higher speeds than silicon ones. But a material called molybdenite has a crucial advantage over graphene that might make it the answer for smaller and faster electronics.UPenn Unleashes Swarm of Nano Quadrotors (gizmag)Scientists at the University of Pennsylvania’s General Robotics, Automation, Sensing and Perception (GRASP) Lab demonstrate in a video scene how science fiction is edging closer to reality as programmed teams of up to twenty agile-flight-capable quadrotors fly in various complex formations. This stuff is cool, but kind of creepy also. We’re probably not much more than a decade from seeing these things flying around Times Square sniffing for explosives.last_img read more

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